VARDAMAN VIRTUAL FORESTRY COMPANY

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YOUR THINNING METHOD WILL MAKE YOUR PINE PLANTATION INVESTMENT EITHER A STAR OR A DUD

Jim Vardaman’s presentation to Salkehatchie Forestry Association, Barnwell State Park, SC

To start discussing how to make big profits from your plantation, let’s look at the thinning of an actual 14-year-old CRP plantation near Jackson, MS.  Although planted at 680 per acre, development of individual trees was quite varied, and mortality has so far been about 25%, irregularly distributed as always.  Here behind Chris Bailey is the unthinned stand.  It’s dark because it’s raining, but also because of the dense crown cover.  To his left in one photo are trees of pulpwood quality.  One is crooked, i.e., a line from the center of the stump to the center of the top will pass outside the bark.  The other is forked less than 33 feet above the ground.  In the other photo, the tree to his left is both.

Now look at the thinned portion about 75 yards away.  There’s much more light.  All trees in these photos are sawtimber-quality.  Note that we did not attempt to make spacing more regular.  We learned that this was unnecessary to maintain growth when we established plots on the Leland Speed Plantation near Collins, MS.  In January 1981 we stretched ropes with knots 12 feet apart on the ground 12 feet apart and planted trees by each knot; then the trees were in rows in all directions, even on the diagonal, like a pecan orchard.  We later measured permanent growth plots every two years from ages 8 to 20.  When we had to clearcut the LSP at age 20 because of a SPB attack, the size of the branches did not reduce prices.

Let me make sure you understand why tree quality is so important.  Look at this chart drawn to scale using measurements from the stand we are discussing.  Today both small trees are unsuitable for sawtimber because they are too small, so they have the same stumpage value of $3.69.  Eleven years from now, both will be big enough for sawtimber, but one will be suitable only for pulpwood because the crooks that are there today will still be there.  (Note the center line passing outside the bark in the left member of both pairs; you can’t saw long boards out of them.)  Then the pulpwood tree will be worth $6.62, whereas the sawtimber tree will be worth $25.78.  The first will have increased in value at an annual compound rate of 5.5%, whereas the second will have done so at 19.3%.  As investments, one is a dud, the other is a star.  You want to get rid of duds now to increase growing space; you want to fertilize stars to make them grow even faster.

So how do you get rid of duds, i.e., weed your garden?  The first step is to determine the exact situation in the garden by careful measurement of a sample.  In this 30-acre plantation, we laid out 30 1/40^th-acre plots spaced 209 feet apart (one per acre).  In all of them we measured DBH of all trees in one-inch DBH classes and classified them by quality.  To determine SI-25, we also measured total height of three dominant trees and two codominant trees on half of the plots.

Here’s a tally of trees by plot, DBH, and quality:  Look at the wide variation between plots.  1) Although average number of trees per acre is 508, stocking ranges from 200 (below the CRP rep’s requirement to begin with) on #2 and #26 to 800 on #13.

Although average tree quality is 50-50, all trees on #3 are pulpwood quality, and 83% of those on #16 are sawtimber quality.

SI-25 ranges from 63 on #3 to 81 on #21 with an average of 70.  And remember, these plots were only 209 feet apart.

To emphasize how complex this situation really is, we entered the sample tally in PTAEDA2V, our growth-and-yield model, and printed out a diagram of the average stand on an area 80 feet square. Size of crown is proportional to DBH.  Pulpwood trees are yellow, sawtimber trees are green, + shows location of natural mortality.  All of you who have walked through your plantation or any plantation have seen this sort of variation.

So we come to the main question: which trees do we remove in a thinning to weed the garden?  The CRP agreement required that the stand be thinned, but the CRP inspector required us to leave an average of 235 trees per acre.  How do we meet both requirements and still produce a high investment return over the 25-year period?  Obviously, we should hold for the harvest all the biggest sawtimber trees.  Our sample revealed that we have 254 sawtimber trees.  If we use a third-row thinning, one-third of them (85) would be sold as pulpwood at age 14, leaving a remainder of only 169.  Therefore to retain a minimum of 235 trees, we must keep 66 pulpwood trees for the future.  There’s another disadvantage.  These 169 are now 5-10 inches in DBH, so only the biggest 35% of them will become large enough for sawtimber in 11 years.  Thus the loss of 69 sawtimber-quality trees at age 14 deals a severe blow to future profits.

Even if we decide against a row thinning, however, we still have the problem of selecting which trees to remove.  When you consider both the complexity of the stand and the requirements you must satisfy, you must recognize that even the world’s most experienced forester can’t select them solely on the basis of inspection.  You MUST insert the sample data into a growth-and-yield model, one that will take individual tree measurements and all other factors of tree growth and that allows you to test a wide range of options.

After we insert the sample data, PTAEDA2V shows that the present stand contains the following trees.

Tract: DEMO

# simulated growing seasons: 25

Random number seed: 68767               SI-25: 70

Simulation size: 20 rows by 20 trees

Living trees/A.: 508                        Percent pulpwood-quality: 50

Feet between rows: 8.8             Feet between trees: 8.2     Growing Seasons Complete: 14

Not fertilized     Hardwood Basal Area: 0     Volumes in cords and board feet, Doyle scale

Live Trees

Site Index (25 yrs.)    SI-25                   70.0                 Dominant Height                       46.4

Growing seasons completed                  14.0                 Average DBH                            6.7

Planted trees/acre                               681.1                 Average Height                         44.2

Percent Hardwood                                   .0                 Average Crown Ratio             46.2

Since we know that holding pulpwood trees for crop trees is terrible business, we now instruct the model to print out the details of all of them.  Our average stand is 508 treees/acre, and we want to reduce it to a minimum of 235, so we can remove 273.  Here are 244 of them.  Still remaining, taking up growing space, and impeding logging will be sawtimber trees less than the 5” DBH class.  But it’s now easy to tell the markers what to do: "Mark all pulpwood trees regardless of size and all sawtimber trees smaller than 4.6" DBH."  (Then the only skills needed by them are the ability to spot crooked or forked trees and those less than 4.6"DBH.)  The volume to be removed per acre, estimated to be 13.8 cords, should be enough to sell.

And the stand held for harvest at age 25 will be as follows:

Finally, we tell the model to print out the details of what will be there at age 25.  Here they are:  17.2 cords of pulpwood and 4 MBF of sawtimber, Doyle scale, all to be cut without worrying about damaging remaining trees.  If such a stand won’t bring top dollar, I’m a Japanese aviator.

If this thinning method is to be widely adopted, however, it must show prove to be more profitable in a financial analysis.  At age 14 before thinning, value of the stand is as follows:

We estimate that the thinning will produce $254, so the owner’s net investment after it is $584 - $254 = $330.  Applying the same prices to the predicted stand at age 25 produces $2,002 and thus an annual compound return of 17.8%.  That’s what stars will do for you even without fertilization.

To some extent, you can use this procedure to predict consequences of a third-row, operator-assisted thinning.  We started by removing every third row from the same stand diagram.  Then we used the model’s graphical-thinning option to remove one tree at a time as we thought the operator would do.  Here are the stand when we finished and the financial comparison:

In a moment, I’ll give you a chance to question me.  First, however, I want to tell you why I drove 600 miles to talk to you.  I came because, by using this procedure, you can now make your pine plantations into superb investments.  This won’t happen unless you do something and do it right.  And you can teach your children or grandchildren how to do it.  It’ll be their job before you know it.  Thanks to the technology developed by the forestry co-ops and combined on this one computer diskette plus the tremendous power of the Internet, you can do it all by yourself.  Except in the beginning, you won’t even need help from JMV&CO.

The first step is to learn to measure the sample.  You don’t need to pay me to do it; you don’t need to pay Mike.  You do need to pay at least one trained forester on Mike’s staff to be in the woods at all times during the process to be sure it’s done right.  This job proceeds most efficiently with two persons, however, and we’ll be glad to use you, preferably your child or grandchild, or anyone else up to strenuous woods work for the second person.  Analysis of the sample data, however, does require Mike’s expertise and PTAEDA2V.  If you want to get started, call Mike.  He will quote you a price for the measurement and analysis.  If you accept, HE WILL GIVE you the Windows version of PTAEDA2V, and without charge teach you how to use it even if you have to call Jackson every time you do so.  To sell the thinning, you must prepare first-rate road- and tract-maps and advertise it on the Internet.  You can hire us or someone else to do the maps, but Internet ads on www.se-timbersales.com are free.

And that’s not all by a long shot.  You saw that the sample measurement and analysis included all the crop trees, the trees that will produce your big pay-off.  You can predict their volume each year thereafter with PTAEDA2V, monitor their value, and even to sell them.  You’ll be a principal just like I am with no need for the cost of agents. I listed LA87040MMB in Louisiana and sold it the first week.

So, go team!  Get richer in a hurry.  And, while you are taking exquisite care of your big-money trees, you’ll protect the environment better than anyone, create sustainable forests (to use the current buzz word in forestry), and produce all the timber we need.  Thank you.