REMEASUREMENT OF THE LELAND SPEED PLANTATION AT AGE 18
As we have done every two years since the trees reached age 8, last
November we remeasured the growth plots on the Leland Speed Plantation at age
18 and sent the data for analysis to Harold Burkhart at Virginia Tech. His analysis
shows the results set forth below.
Average per-acre figures are DBH 11.3 inches, height 70.3 feet, and crown
ratio 43.4%. Stand table is as follows:
|
DBH
Class
|
Number
Trees
|
Average
Height
|
Basal
Area
|
Volume
Cu. Ft.
o.b.
|
Volume
Cords
To 4"
|
Volume
Bd. Ft.
Doyle
|
|
9
|
20.4
|
66.4
|
9.4
|
289
|
3.0
|
-
|
|
10
|
43.3
|
68.3
|
23.9
|
756
|
-
|
1,642
|
|
11
|
34.8
|
70.6
|
23.0
|
752
|
-
|
1,799
|
|
12
|
32.3
|
71.1
|
25.6
|
840
|
-
|
2,204
|
|
13
|
31.4
|
73.5
|
28.8
|
977
|
-
|
2,805
|
|
14
|
8.5
|
73.1
|
9.2
|
309
|
-
|
965
|
|
15
|
0.8
|
75.5
|
1.0
|
35
|
-
|
116
|
|
|
171.5
|
|
120.9
|
3,958
|
3.0
|
9,531
|
With the data base enlarged by one additional measurement, the predicted
stand table at age 22, when harvest is planned, is as follows:
|
DBH
Class
|
Number
Trees
|
Average
Height
|
Basal
Area
|
Volume
Cu. Ft.
o.b.
|
Volume
Cords
To 4"
|
Volume
Bd. Ft.
Doyle
|
|
9
|
2.5
|
73.6
|
1.2
|
41
|
0.4
|
-
|
|
10
|
26.3
|
75.8
|
14.7
|
516
|
-
|
1,180
|
|
11
|
40.8
|
78.1
|
27.0
|
976
|
-
|
2,458
|
|
12
|
30.6
|
80.4
|
23.9
|
888
|
-
|
2,465
|
|
13
|
33.1
|
81.1
|
30.9
|
1,155
|
-
|
3,524
|
|
14
|
26.3
|
84.0
|
28.1
|
1,088
|
-
|
3.632
|
|
15
|
7.67
|
84.3
|
9.2
|
355
|
-
|
1,260
|
|
16
|
4.30
|
85.9
|
5.8
|
228
|
-
|
876
|
|
|
171.6
|
|
140.8
|
5,247
|
0.4
|
15,395
|
We have now performed this operation six times. On the basis of the
measurement at Age 8, PTAEDA2V predicted the harvest volume at Age 22 to be
15,697, at Age 10 15,285, at Age 12 16,272, at Age 14 16,272, at Age 16
16,272, and now at Age 18 15,395. All of these predicted volumes are within
3.7% of the average. In other words, actual development of the trees has
always been very close to the prediction.
By applying current stumpage prices derived from JMV&CO sales, we
calculate per-acre value of the present stand to be $3,363 and of the
predicted stand at age 22 to be $5,864. Over the next four years, we estimate
timber volume to increase at an annual compound rate of 12.7% and timber
value to increase at 14.9%, the higher figure due to increased unit values
because of larger tree size.
In addition to these returns, Mr. Speed's liquidity is now considerable,
even at age 18. His stand is located on a public road, can be logged at all
seasons of the year, and can be sold at a premium whenever severe local
weather conditions render most other tracts inaccessible.
Those who doubt PTAEDA2V's predictions should examine this example on the
ground. It shows clearly what can be produced by utilizing modern
tree-growing technology.
|
