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THE VARDAMAN 1998 SEMINAR AND THE 1998 HYPOTHESIS

The JMV&CO seminar in Atlanta on August 13-14 was the most exciting technology-transfer event in our 47-year history. The 51 participants (ten outstanding scientists, 21 experienced investors, 17 JMV&CO managers, and three financial advisors) heard presentations on the current state of timber-growing technology from the following professors:

Ralph L. Amateis, Virginia Tech, on growth-and-yield models
Robert J. Weir, NC State University, on genetics
David B. South, Auburn University, on seedling morphology and planting
Shepard M. Zedaker, Virginia Tech, on competition control
H. Lee Allen, NC State University, on forest nutrition
Lawrence A. Morris, University of Georgia, on soils and cultivation

To start proceedings, Vardaman presented timber- and cash-flows and the real rates of return (RRR) for seven different forest-management scenarios using the inputs according to the 1996 Hypothesis. In the final session, the six scientists went over each technique in what amounted to a peer review of the adjustments needed to make outputs of the basic PTAEDA2 model predict with accuracy the results of applying the latest research findings. As you might expect, there was spirited discussion and some disagreement. Vardaman was umpire for the discussion; he selected the adjustments for each technique as listed below, so he is solely responsible for them.

We hypothesize that the proper adjustments are as follows:

1. Use of first-generation, genetically-improved seedlings will increase site index (SI-25) 7%; second-generation seedlings will increase it 12%. Because there are no site-index curves for values higher than 80, the maximum allowable input for SI-25 is 80.

2. Use of genetically-improved seedlings will reduce pulpwood-quality trees to 16%.

3. Because it is impossible to forecast when planting must be done by hand, subsoiling of all tracts, including agricultural fields, is essential to guarantee first-year survival of 92% even during droughts. It loosens the soil so that users of dibbles and shovels can plant the seedlings deep enough. Subsoiling of upland clay tracts with shallow surface soil will increase site index by two feet. Combining subsoiling with either 4. or 5. will increase guaranteed survival to 95%. Bedding according to individual prescriptions may be necessary on some tracts. Extensive moving of slash and soil on the site will sharply reduce productivity.

4. Use of seedlings grown at low density in the nursery bed to a groundline diameter of 6mm will produce an Establishment Quality Boost (EQB) of one year. (An EQB of one year means that we can grow a stand in eight years that normally requires nine years to produce.)

5. Application of herbicides early in the first spring following planting to control herbaceous vegetation will produce an EQB of one year. Under current costs of herbicides and applicators and the current state of knowledge, additional applications will cause a reduction in RRR.

6. Use of herbicides following the second growing season to control woody vegetation will reduce hardwood competition in the canopy to 2.4%. Mid-rotation application of herbicides to control competing vegetation will reduce hardwood competition in the canopy to 1%. Broadcast application of herbicides to control woody vegetation may be needed BEFORE planting on areas with very heavy cover of hardwood brush, such as might develop two to three years after clearcutting.

7. Midrotation fertilization can be reasonably well predicted under the conditions listed above using the models recently programmed in PTAEDA2V by Ralph Amateis of the Loblolly Pine Growth and Yield Research Cooperative. The models are found in the published article: Hynynen, Jari, Burkhart, H. E., Allen, H. Lee 1998. Modeling tree growth in fertilized midrotation loblolly pine plantations. Forest Ecology and Management 107: 213-229.

Adjustments under the 1998 Hypothesis cover more separate practices than any growth-and-yield model that we know of. In general they increase RRR and decrease risk. If making money growing trees is your goal, you must predict accurately the effects of cultural practices that you employ. We suggest that this hypothesis combined with PTAEDA2V make the most accurate available.

All presentations plus separate PTAEDA2V runs showing the effects of the 1998 adjustments are included in 100 pages of "Proceedings." We will be happy to mail you a copy of this document for $100.